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How to Read an Alert Report

Report Structure

Header

Composite score — a single number from 0 to 10. The higher the score, the more anomalous the stock's behavior. Reports are issued when the score reaches 7 or higher.

Panels

Below the header are three panels:

1. Signal Score Detail: What is DEWLINE detecting?
2. News Context: What is happening?
3. Historical Pattern: What has happened before to stocks in similar situations?

Panel 1: Signal Score Detail

• Self-Relative Divergence: How far the stock moved relative to its own normal volatility.
• Peer Divergence: Whether the stock is moving differently from its sector peers.
• Market-Relative Divergence: Whether the stock is moving independently of the broad market.
• Correlation Breakdown: Whether the stock's historical relationship with its sector has changed.
• Persistence: Whether the anomalous behavior has been building over multiple days.

For example, a peer divergence score of 3.0 means that it is "modestly diverging from peers." A score of 8.7 means that it is "diverging sharply from its peers."

Each factor is scored independently. A single elevated factor is common and usually not actionable. DEWLINE alerts only when multiple factors converge.

Panel 2: News Context

DEWLINE has no awareness of events. News may help you understand what is happening as you decide whether and how to act.

Panel 3: Historical Pattern

This panel answers: "When DEWLINE has seen a signal like this before, what happened next?"

DEWLINE searches its database of historical episodes for cases with a similar signal profile: same sector, similar composite score, and similar factor profile.

Resolution Timeline

This shows how long similar episodes typically lasted before the anomaly resolved:

• Median resolution: The typical number of trading days before the composite score returns to normal.
• 75th percentile: How long it took in the slower-resolving cases.
• Worst case: The longest resolution observed in similar episodes.

A median resolution of 3 days with a worst case of 17 days tells you this type of anomaly typically resolves quickly, but occasionally persists.

Forward Returns

This table shows what happened to stock prices after similar historical alerts, measured at three forward horizons — 5, 10, and 20 trading days after the alert date — and four severity levels:

• Median: The middle outcome from all similar historical episodes. Half did better, half did worse.
• Elevated: The 75th percentile outcome. Worse than three-quarters of similar episodes.
• Severe: The 95th percentile outcome. Near the tail of the distribution — rare but documented.
• Worst: The single worst outcome observed in the historical dataset.

Economic Potential

This table shows the economic potential a $100,000 position historically gained or lost at 5, 10, and 20 trading days after the alert date.

It is based on historical episodes and does not refer specifically to the alerted stock. Amounts are shown with a sign: negative for downside alerts, positive for upside alerts.

Scenario	At 5 Days	At 10 Days	At 20 Days
Likely (median)	-$1,400	-$1,200	-$1,100
Elevated (75th)	-$2,800	-$3,100	-$3,400
Severe (95th)	-$5,200	-$6,500	-$7,600

The dollar amounts scale with your position size. If you hold $200,000 of the flagged stock instead of $100,000, multiply accordingly.

What To Do with This Report

DEWLINE does not tell you what to do. It tells you something unusual is happening and provides the context to investigate.

1. Read the signal breakdown to understand what DEWLINE is detecting.
2. Check the news to understand why.
3. Review the historical pattern to understand the range of outcomes.
4. Make your decision and document it.

The report provides information only. DEWLINE does not provide investment advice. Historical patterns are not predictions of future outcomes.